WASHINGTON, D.C.—Today AARP released a series of battleground state polls of likely voters in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Montana, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The full survey results will be released on Tuesday, September 15.
“This election hinges on battleground states and these results show either candidate can win,” said Nancy LeaMond, AARP EVP and Chief Advocacy and Engagement Officer. “Most importantly, people are casting their ballots earlier than ever. The window is closing, so candidates need to address concerns of 50-plus voters now.”
Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump in five states: Colorado (50% to 40%), Maine (54% to 40%), Michigan (50% to 43%), Pennsylvania (49% to 46%) and Wisconsin (50% to 45%). Trump leads Biden in one state: Montana (50% to 43%). In five states, Biden and Trump are tied or within the margin of error: Arizona (48% to 47%), Florida (48% to 46%), Georgia (47% to 46%), Iowa (45% to 47%) and North Carolina (48% to 48%).
The polls also surveyed key U.S. Senate races, which found:
- In Arizona, Democrat Mark Kelly (48%) leads incumbent Republican Sen. Martha McSally (45%).
- In Colorado, Democratic former Governor John Hickenlooper (51%) leads incumbent Republican Sen. Cory Gardner (46%).
- In Georgia, Democrat Jon Ossoff (48%) leads incumbent Republican Senator David Perdue (47%).
- In Georgia’s special election, Republican Senator Kelly Loeffler (24%) leads Republican Congressman Doug Collins (20%), Democrat Raphael Warnock (19%), Democrat Matt Lieberman (10%), Democrat Ed Tarver (7%) and 19% of voters are undecided.
- In Iowa, incumbent Republican Senator Joni Ernst (50%) leads Democrat Theresa Greenfield (45%).
- In Maine, Democrat Sara Gideon (44%) and incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins (43%) within the margin of error and Independent Lisa Savage with 6%.
- Due to Maine’s Ranked Choice voting, undecided voters and those who support Lisa Savage, an independent candidate, were asked a follow up about their next choice. The results found Gideon (48%) and Collins (47%) within the margin of error.
- In Michigan, incumbent Democrat Sen. Gary Peters (45%) leads Republican John James (41%).
- In Montana, Senator Steve Daines (50%) leads Democratic former Governor Steve Bullock (47%).
- In North Carolina, Democrat Cal Cunningham (42%) leads incumbent Republican Sen. Thom Tillis (39%).
The bipartisan team of Benenson Strategy Group and GS Strategy Group conducted the surveys in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin between August 30 and September 8, 2020. The bipartisan team of Fabrizio Ward and Hart Research conducted the polls in Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Maine and Montana between August 30 and September 5, 2020. The methodology for each survey is available here.
In August, AARP launched “Protect Voters 50+,” a comprehensive voter engagement campaign to support and protect Americans 50-plus as they vote in the 2020 elections. The campaign will help Americans over 50 vote safely, whether at home or in person. The “Protect Voters 50+” campaign will provide people with the information they need about this year’s elections, including video voters’ guides, issue briefings, direct mail, text messaging, social media and paid media.
AARP is the nation’s largest nonprofit, nonpartisan organization dedicated to empowering people 50 and older to choose how they live as they age. With a nationwide presence and nearly 38 million members, AARP strengthens communities and advocates for what matters most to families: health security, financial stability and personal fulfillment. AARP also produces the nation's largest circulation publications: AARP The Magazine and AARP Bulletin. To learn more, visit www.aarp.org or follow @AARP and @AARPadvocates on social media.