PHOENIX—Today, AARP Arizona released its second statewide election survey that shows candidates for President, U.S. Senate, and state races should pay close attention to Arizonans ages 50 and older. Ninety-two percent of voters ages 50 and older say they are “extremely motivated” to vote in this election, a 6-point increase since AARP Arizona’s first poll, released in June.

Former President Donald Trump (R) leads Vice President Kamala Harris (D) among voters overall, 49% - 47%, with 1% supporting other candidates and 3% undecided. In the head-to-head matchup, Trump leads Harris, 50% - 48%, with 2% undecided. Among voters 50 and older, Trump leads by 7 points, 52% - 45%. Harris is up by 6 points with women voters overall, but women voters ages 50 and older favor Trump by 3 points. And while Hispanic/Latino voters overall prefer Trump by 2 points, Harris holds a 21-point lead among older Hispanic/Latino voters.

Representative Ruben Gallego (D) leads Kari Lake (R), 51% to 44% in the U.S. Senate race among voters overall, with 4% undecided. Among voters 50 and older, the race is tied, 48% - 48%. Gallego holds a 14-point lead among women overall, with the lead narrowing to 6 points among older women.

Seventy-nine percent of voters 50 and older report that candidates’ positions on Social Security are important in deciding whom to vote for in November, followed by Medicare (74%), helping people stay in their homes as they age (68%), and the cost of utilities (64%). And the vast majority (82%) of older voters in Arizona prefer a member of Congress who wants Medicare to continue negotiations for lower drug prices.

“Arizona voters over age 50 are the biggest voting bloc and could tip the scale for any candidate in this election,” said Dana Kennedy, State Director, AARP Arizona. “If candidates want to win, they should pay attention to the issues that matter to voters 50 and older, from protecting Social Security and Medicare to helping people stay in their homes as they age.”

Other key takeaways from the poll among older adults in Arizona include:

• Immigration and border security (40%) is the single most important issue when deciding who to vote for in November, followed by the economy and jobs (26%) and inflation and rising prices (25%).
  • Fifty-seven percent cite at least one personal economic issue – inflation and rising prices, the economy and jobs, and Social Security – as most important to them.
• Seventeen percent of older voters are ticket-splitting swing voters. Trump leads Harris by 9 points while Gallego leads Lake by 30 points among these voters.
• Twenty-five percent of older voters identify as family caregivers, with 32% of Hispanic/Latino voters ages 50 and older and 30% of older swing voters saying the same. Trump leads Harris by 6 points and Gallego leads Lake by 5 points among caregivers 50 and older.
   

AARP commissioned the bipartisan polling team of Fabrizio Ward (R) & Impact Research (D) to conduct a survey of voters in Arizona. The firms interviewed 1,358 likely voters, which includes a statewide representative sample of 600 likely voters, an oversample of 470 likely voters ages 50 and older, and an additional oversample of 288 Hispanic likely voters ages 50 and older. The survey was done between September 24 – October 1, 2024. The interviews were conducted via live interviewer on landline (25%) and cellphone (35%), as well as SMS-to-web (40%). The survey was offered in both English and Spanish. The sample was randomly drawn from the Arizona voter list. The margin of sampling error at the 95% confidence level for the 600 statewide sample is ±4.0%; for the 800 total sample of voters 50+ is ±3.5%; for the 400 total sample of Hispanic voters 50+ is ±4.9%.

View the full survey results at aarp.org/AZpolling and find all of our state battleground polls at aarp.org/voterpolls24. Read AARP’s coverage of the poll here.

For more information on how, when and where to vote in Arizona, visit aarp.org/AZVotes.

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About AARP
AARP is the nation's largest nonprofit, nonpartisan organization dedicated to empowering Americans 50 and older to choose how they live as they age. With a nationwide presence, AARP strengthens communities and advocates for what matters most to the more than 100 million Americans 50-plus and their families: health security, financial stability and personal fulfillment. AARP also works for individuals in the marketplace by sparking new solutions and allowing carefully chosen, high-quality products and services to carry the AARP name. As a trusted source for news and information, AARP produces the nation's largest circulation publications, AARP The Magazine and AARP Bulletin. To learn more, visit www.aarp.org/about-aarp/, www.aarp.org/español or follow @AARP, @AARPenEspañol and @AARPadvocates on social media.